BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Manufacturing
Index

Contraction – PMI

16 Aug, 2019
48.2
July
-2.9

Monthly Change

contracting
slower rate

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector fell into contraction for the first time since 2012, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for July was 48.2 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 2.9 points down from June, and the lowest overall result since August 2012.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that concerns around the direction of activity over the last six months has inevitably led to the sector falling into decline. nbsp;

“While the key sub-index of production (51.1) kept its head above water with a result matching the previous month,  the other key sub-index of new orders (48.9) fell 3.5 points to its lowest result since December 2012.  Worst still, employment (42.6) experienced its third consecutive decline to reach its lowest value since June 2009.  

The proportion of positive comments for July (44.0%) remained the lesser of the two options, although not quite as bad as June (42.9%).  A lack of orders and customer demand dominated the negative comments received, along with a general softening of markets.

BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “while July’s result is no dead-set that the economy at large is contracting, the shrinkage is certainly something to take note of”.

Catherine Beard

Catherine Beard

Director, Advocacy BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI

Manufacturing Snapshot

The PMI

For the first time in 82 months, New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) has dipped into contractionary territory. Then again, its seasonally adjusted reading of 48.2 for July was no great surprise, given the sector’s adverse inventory dynamics we noted over recent months.
Read more

Orders

The worry around the latest NZ PMI is compounded by its detail. Notably, new orders weakened a lot. This sub-index dropped to a seasonally adjusted 48.9 in July, from 52.4 in June (the long-term average being 55.1).
Read more

Employment

It wasn’t as if manufacturing output itself was falling. Indeed, the PMI index on production kept its head above water in July, with a steady, albeit slow, 51.1. However, there was definitely something coming unstuck with respect to hiring.
Read more

Wages

Interestingly, these signals of weakness in manufacturing jobs have not coincided with dissipating wage inflation in the industry. In fact, the opposite is occurring.
Read more

Craig Ebert

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector.

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Jul
2018
Mar
2019
Apr
2019
May
2019
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI 51.9 51.7 52.7 50.3 51.1 48.2
Production 49.7 50.5 50.4 46.8 51.1 51.1
Employment 51.9 51.9 51.4 48.3 47.2 42.6
New Orders 53.5 52.7 52.3 50.5 52.4 48.9
Finished Stocks 54.2 53.0 52.5 56.6 57.3 53.2
Deliveries 54.0 52.4 54.1 51.2 48.6 48.9

BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

July 2020 – July 2024

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM

01 Aug 2019
49.3

About the PMI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

PMI Releases

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Activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector experienced stronger contraction during March, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for March was 47.1 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that...

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Activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to show improvement in February, but still remained in contraction, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for February was 49.3 (a PMI...

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Activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector ended in further contraction, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for December was 43.1 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is...

Little Christmas cheer

Activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector improved during November, but still remained in contraction, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for November was 46.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0...

Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations